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Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 220418
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1118 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFs/

No major concerns or changes from the 00z forecasts. Some minor
challenges regarding wind direction(though very light) is
presenting itself with a stagnant surface ridge that will remain
anchored across the area. Winds will generally be light ESE 6
knots or less, so DFW Airport should be able to sustain south flow
air traffic and normal rates on Monday with VFR cigs AOA FL120.

Otherwise, only other challenge will be how much any increasing
isentropic ascent aloft late Monday can saturate lower levels
across Central TX. With a few very light sprinkles or showers
possible by Monday, I`ll add a VCSH by 00z to Waco`s forecast.
Cigs will remain high and in VFR.

05/

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 243 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018/
/Tonight/

We`ll cap off what can only be described as a spectacular fall
afternoon with temperatures generally in the upper 60s and lower
70s. Clouds will be on the increase this evening and overnight as
high-level moisture associated with Hurricane Willa begins to
overspread the region. While the low-level airmass will remain
quite dry, we`ll lose some of our radiational cooling potential
due to the increase in cloud cover. As a result, I`ve sided with
some of the warmer model guidance for overnight temperatures.

Carlaw

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 243 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018/
/Monday through Sunday/

An upper level ridge will deamplify and shift to the east on
Monday while an upper trough strengthens across the West Coast and
Hurricane Willa meanders northward. This will result in a slow
increase in elevated moisture and clouds from southwest to
northeast. Although southerly surface winds will also return on
Monday, the Gulf will remain closed due to surface low pressure
over deep South Texas. Therefore, dewpoints should remain in the
upper 40s and lower 50s.

A few showers may develop Monday afternoon/evening across the far
southern zones as a weak impulse embedded in southwest flow aloft
approaches the region. Any rain that falls through Monday night
will be light.

After a cool start to the morning Monday with sunrise temperatures
generally in the 40s, afternoon highs will struggle to warm beyond
the 60s due to the increase in cloud cover.

The weather pattern will not change much Tuesday/Tuesday night
with southwest flow aloft and generally east to northeast winds in
the low levels. The only things of note that will change will be
an increase in elevated moisture as Hurricane Willa nears Mexico
and the West Coast trough deamplifies and begins to move east. It
still appears as if the best large scale lift and moisture will
reside over deep South Texas and the Trans Pecos, however, a few
elevated showers will be possible across the west and southwest
zones, mainly Tuesday night.

Lift and moisture will both be maximized over North and Central
Texas Wednesday, resulting in areas of rain and possibly some
isolated thunderstorms. The heaviest rainfall should be south of
I-20 where precipitable water values are forecast to be above
1.75. It is likely that some heavy rainfall and localized flooding
will occur. We will hold off on any type of watch at this time
since the event is still several days away and there is a good
chance that the flooding rainfall will occur just south of the
forecast area where both low and elevated moisture will coexist.
It goes without saying that any additional rainfall across the
entire region could result in problems since may rivers are still
in flood and soils remain saturated. The only good news is that
the upper trough will be progressive and rainfall should end
Wednesday night/Thursday.

The atmosphere over North Texas will dry out the second half of
the week with dry west to northwest flow aloft. However, a passing
upper level trough Friday/Friday night may produce a few elevated
showers.

Temperatures the first half of the week will be generally below
normal with Wednesday being the coolest day due to abundant
clouds and periods of rain. A warming trend is expected the second
half of the week through the weekend with highs warming back
mainly into the 70s. It will remain relatively dry the second half
of the week with a few shots of dry Continental Polar air. As a
result, overnight temperatures will be on the cool side with lows
from the upper 40s to the middle 50s.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    50  67  50  68  53 /   0   5   5  10  20
Waco                47  65  50  67  53 /   5  10   5  20  40
Paris               43  63  47  68  51 /   0   0   5   5  10
Denton              45  66  48  68  52 /   0   5   5  10  20
McKinney            45  65  47  68  52 /   0   5   5  10  10
Dallas              50  68  51  69  54 /   0   5   5  10  20
Terrell             46  65  49  68  53 /   0   5   5  10  20
Corsicana           48  65  51  67  53 /   5   5   5  10  20
Temple              48  64  52  64  53 /  10  20   5  30  50
Mineral Wells       45  68  49  68  51 /   0   5   5  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

05/26

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX (FWD) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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